How much stock to order from AliExpress: sizing your first batch for eBay UK

How much stock should you order from AliExpress?

How much stock to order from AliExpress for a first batch comes down to three numbers: how many units you expect to sell each week on eBay UK, how many weeks you need to cover, and how much money you could lose without real harm if the product fails. Order the smaller of the two answers: enough to cover the weeks you need, or the most you can afford to risk.

The common mistake is to let the supplier's price table decide. Larger quantities bring lower unit prices, and that saving is tempting. But unsold stock costs far more than a slightly higher unit price on a sensible order.

This guide assumes you hold the stock in the UK and post it yourself. eBay's drop shipping policy allows dropshipping from a wholesale supplier, but listing an item and then buying it from another retailer or marketplace that ships directly to your buyer is not allowed. Either way, you stay responsible for delivery within your stated time and for the buyer's satisfaction.

How do you estimate weekly sales on eBay UK?

eBay sold listings are your best free guide. Search eBay.co.uk for the product, filter to sold items and look at the last few weeks.

1. Count recent sales. Count how many sold, from all sellers, over a recent period, and work out a weekly figure.
2. Note the number of sellers. Demand split between many sellers means a smaller share for you.
3. Check the prices. Only count sales at prices you could match profitably.
4. Estimate your share. As a new seller with no sales history on the item, assume you will win only a modest share at first.
5. Allow for the season. Note whether recent sales are unusually high or low for the time of year.

Colours, sizes and other variations

If the product comes in several colours or sizes, demand is rarely spread evenly. Look at which variations sell in the sold listings: often one or two colours make up most of the sales. Order more of those and only a few of the others, or leave the slow ones out of the first batch entirely. A first order split evenly across eight colours usually leaves you out of the popular ones and overstocked in the rest.

Write down a cautious estimate and an optimistic one. You will order from the cautious one and plan the reorder from the optimistic one.

How many weeks of stock do you need?

Your first batch needs to last through two periods:

• The test period: long enough to learn whether the product sells, often a few weeks once the listing is live.
• The reorder lead time: the time from placing a second order to having it on your shelf, including the supplier's preparation, shipping and customs.

If you only buy enough for the test period, a successful product sells out while the reorder is still on its way, and your listing loses momentum. Use the lead time from your own sample orders rather than the listing estimate. Our guide to AliExpress delivery time to the UK explains how to work out lead time and a reorder point.

How much can you afford to risk?

The second limit is money. Before ordering, decide the most you are willing to lose on this product if it fails completely. A useful way to think about it is: if every unit had to be sold off at cost or given away, would your business still be fine?

Also check the cash you need for the rest of the business. Stock ties up money until it sells. A large first order can leave you unable to pay for postage, fees or a reorder of a product that is selling well. Keep enough cash back for running costs and for a second batch of whatever succeeds.

Testing several products at once

Your risk limit can cover more than one product. Splitting the same budget across three or four small tests spreads the risk: one failure costs less, and you learn faster which kinds of product suit your shop. The trade-off is more listings to create and more suppliers to manage. Many sellers keep a steady core of proven products and run a few small tests alongside them at any time.

Space counts too

Measure the cartons before you order. A few hundred units of a bulky item can fill a spare room, and storage you have to pay for adds to your cost per unit.

A worked example: sizing a first order

Example: suppose a hypothetical seller is testing a bamboo bath caddy. All figures are invented to show the method.

In this example the cover calculation says 40 units and the risk limit allows about 53. The supplier's minimum is 50, which costs £375 and stays inside the risk limit, so the seller orders 50. If the supplier had insisted on 200 units to get a better price, the seller would have looked for another supplier or asked for a smaller trial, rather than putting £1,500 into an untested product.

Notice that the risk limit, not the sales estimate, would have been the deciding number if the supplier's minimum had been higher. That is deliberate: on a first order, protecting cash matters more than squeezing the lowest unit price. The saving from a bigger order is only real if the extra units sell.

If sales in the first two weeks run near the optimistic estimate, the seller places the reorder straight away rather than waiting for the test period to end.

How do you track a first batch once it is live?

A first order is an experiment, so treat it like one.

• Record sales every week. Compare them with your cautious and optimistic estimates.
• Watch the listing's views and watchers. Views without sales suggest a price or listing problem; few views suggest a search or demand problem.
• Keep the eBay quantity honest. Show only what you hold, so you never sell stock you do not have.
• Note returns and complaints. A product that sells but comes back is not a success.
• Decide at a set point. At the end of the test period, decide: reorder bigger, reorder the same, or stop.

Keep these notes for every test, including the failures. Over time they show you which product types, price points and suppliers work for your shop, which makes every later first order easier to size.

When you reorder a proven product, the cautious estimate becomes real sales data, and you can order more confidently, often at a better unit price.

What should you do with stock that does not sell?

Plan this before you buy, so a slow product does not become stock that sits for a year.

1. Check the listing first. Photos, title, item specifics and price may be the problem rather than the product.
2. Adjust the price towards break-even. Work out the price at which a sale only just covers its costs, and do not go below it unless you are clearing stock deliberately.
3. Bundle or offer multi-buys. Pair the slow item with one that sells, or reward buyers for taking two.
4. Clear it. If it still does not move, selling it off at or below cost frees cash and space for products that work.

Selling at a loss is never pleasant, but it is a cost of learning. Keeping first orders small keeps that cost small too. For working out break-even, see our guide on how to price AliExpress products on eBay.

A quick checklist

• Estimate weekly eBay UK sales from sold listings, cautiously and optimistically.
• Add the test period and your real reorder lead time.
• Set the most you are willing to risk on the product.
• Order the smaller of the cover figure and the risk limit, negotiating the minimum if needed.
• Track sales weekly and decide at the end of the test period.
• Have a plan for slow stock before you pay for it.